Rayo Vallecano vs Barcelona match preview: Probable lineups, tactics, match facts, prediction

Date and Kickoff time: 27th October; 19:00 CET
Stadium: Estadio de Vallecas
Competition: La Liga 
Referee: Antonio Mateu

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Overview

Flashback to the Estadio de Vallecas, January 2021: Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano face off in an early round of the Copa del Rey. One hour into the match and the visitors are down 0-1 thanks to a goal from Fran Garcia. But, minutes later, Lionel Messi equalizes, and Frenkie De Jong seals the win with 10 minutes to go. 

Flash forward seven months, and a lot has changed since then. One could list Barcelona’s differences for days on end, but Rayo Vallecano are now playing in La Liga, and they sit one point ahead of their opponents.

What to expect from Barcelona?

Barcelona are coming off a tough week of fixtures, having faced Valencia, Dynamo Kyiv, and Real Madrid. On paper, two wins from three matches is admirable, but their performances themselves that still give reason to doubt. Their hopeful outing against Valencia was followed by a dismal performance against Kyiv.

That was, of course, topped off by a disheartening loss in El Clasico where they outscored their opponents 1.6 to 1.2 on xG, but ended up losing 1-2.

Looking ahead, Rayo Vallecano are no walk-in-the-park. Barcelona will have to be at their best to secure all three points on the night. 

Expect Ronald Koeman to line up with a 4-3-3. The days of the 3-5-2 and 3-4-3 seem in the rearview mirror now as they have not been seen since the 3-0 loss to Benfica. 

It goes without saying that Marc-Andre ter Stegen will start in goal. In front of him will be Gerard Pique and Clement Lenglet. Eric Garcia could start for the second match in a row, but his poor start to the season indicates that that the Frenchmen will start instead. 

Oscar Mingueza and Sergino Dest will likely start at right-back and left-back, respectively. Jordi Alba was an injury doubt against Madrid, and consequenty could see the bench tonight. 

In the number 6 role will be none other than Sergio Busquets, who was arguably Barcelona’s best player in El Clasico. Following Frenkie de Jong’s injury, one can expect Sergi Roberto to start alongside Gavi in the heart of the midfield.

Typically on the left and right, respectively, Ronald Koeman switched things up against Madrid. 

The question is, how will he position them against Vallecano?

Upfront will be Ansu Fati, Memphis Depay, and likely Sergio Aguero. The Argentine has made two appearances off the bench thus far and has already scored a goal. If no fitness issues arise, he should earn the start.

Fielding all three at the same time will be quite the experiment for Koeman, however. It is possible that he places Memphis in the hole behind Aguero and Fati, but it will hardly be surpring if the latter is benched to avoid injury complications.

Probable Barcelona XI: Ter Stegen; Mingueza, Pique, Lenglet, Dest; De Jong, Busquets, Gavi; Memphis; Fati, Aguero

What to expect from Rayo Vallecano?

Rayo Vallecano have taken La Liga by storm. The newly-promoted side are sitting seventh in the table and have scored 17 goals – second to only Real Madrid. Led by young manager Andoni Iraola, they can spoil anyone’s party.

They have won three of their last five games, and are coming off a tough 2-3 loss to Real Betis. Additionally, they are on a four-game winning streak at home. 

Vallecano take a respectable 11.3 shots per La Liga game, putting them in the middle of the pack. But, they outscore their xG (12.7) by almost five, suggesting efficiency and clinical nature in front of goal. Given Barcelona’s particularly high goals per shot-against ratio (0.12 – third-worst in La Liga), Rayo will likely score a pair or two. 

Iraola may task his team to sit back and absorb pressure in a 4-4-2, however they are equally adept at being on the front foot as well – especially when considering Barcelona’s inability to play out of a high press at times. 

In goal should be Stole Dimitrievski, with a backline of Ivan Baillu, Alejandro Catena, Esteban Savelijch, and Fran Garcia. 

Filling in the four midfield spots will likely be Santi Comesana, Pathe Ciss, with Alvaro Garcia and Oscar Trejo out wide. 

Isaac Palazon and the legendary Radamel Falcao will be the strike partnership on the night. The Colombian centre-forward has started only two matches with his new side, however, Iraola may count on him for his experience.

Probable Vallecano XI: Dimitrievski; Baillu, Catena, Savelijch, Garcia; Comesana, Ciss, Garcia, Trejo; Palazon, Falcao

Marquee Player

Radamel Falcao

Rayo Vallecano are well-defined as more than the sum of their parts. As a unit, they are compact and well organized, but if there’s one player Barcelona have to watch out for, it’s Radamel Falcao. The seasoned international has a brilliant record vs the garnet and blue, scoring three goals in four games during his two season stint at Atletico Madrid.

The 35-year old has three goals in only 174 minutes this campaign. While he has not scored since September 26, he is long overdue. His three goals have come from a combined xG of 1.4 and with even the slightest look on goal, he could punish the Blaugrana backline. 

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Match Facts

FC Barcelona

Previous games: LWWLL

Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga 2021-22 Barcelona 1-0 Dynamo Kyiv | UEFA Champions League 2021-22
Barcelona 3-1 Valencia | La Liga 2021-22
Atlético Madrid 2-0 Barcelona | La Liga 2021-22
Benfica 3-0 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League 2021-22

Rayo Vallecano

Previous games: LWLWW

Real Betis 3-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga 2021-22 Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche | La Liga 2021-22
Osasuna 1-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga 2021-22
Rayo Vallecano 3-1 Cadiz | La Liga 2021-22
Athletic Club 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga 2021-22

Head-to-head record

Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Barcelona| Copa del Rey 2020-21
Barcelona 3-1 Rayo Vallecano| La Liga 2018-19
Rayo Vallecano 2-3 Barcelona| La Liga 2018-19
Rayo Vallecano 1-5 Barcelona | La Liga 2015-16
Barcelona 5-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga 2015-16

Key stats

• Barcelona have won their last 13 games against Rayo Vallecano in La Liga.
• Rayo Vallecano have scored in 6 of their last 6 matches against Barcelona.
• Barcelona only have 5 goals after their first nine La Liga matches, the lowest since 2003/04 (11).

Prediction

Rayo Vallecano have built a fortress at home so far in 2021-22, losing only to Sevilla, but Barcelona can not afford to be second-best yet again. On any given night, both teams can score goals at ease, thus expect an exciting match that will ultimately end at a stalemate.

And if anything, anything but three points could be the final breath for Ronald Koeman at Barcelona, with new change nearby in the form of Xavi, Erik ten Hag, or someone else.

Barça Universal prediction: Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Barcelona