While Gerard Piqué remains an undisputed starter as the right centre-back, Barcelona has two capable left-footed defenders to pair with the Spaniard. But how distinct are Samuel Umtiti and Clément Lenglet from each other, and who deserves the starting role?
Barcelona’s centre-backs not only need to be excellent in the usual prerequisite defensive duties, but also be good with the ball. The reason why Barça purchased Samuel Umtiti in 2016 was to have an excellent left-footed centre-back to sit alongside the undisputed Gerard Piqué. However, Umtiti’s time at the Camp Nou has been far from ideal, especially in the past two years. Time has continued to test the blaugranas and Samuel’s patience when it comes to his fitness levels.
To cover for his continued absence, the Barça board bought Clément Lenglet from Sevilla in 2018 for a fee of €35 million. Today, that decision seems to be one of the most fruitful ones taken by president Josep Maria Bartomeu’s regime. Lenglet may have well been the club’s best defender amidst this testing period. Even Piqué has faltered on several occasions, while the Frenchmen has covered for the backline’s anomalies.
In addition to the goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen, Lenglet has been the glimmer of hope for providing defensive stability. Unfortunately, he cannot play every game. And so, manager Quique Setién needs to take care of his fitness and not have another situation similar to that of his French compatriot.
What went wrong with Samuel Umtiti?
When Samuel Umtiti joined from Olympique Lyonnais, there were massive hopes pinned on him to be the ideal left-footed partner with Piqué. But sadly, in every player’s career, there comes a time where he must take a crucial sporting decision for his own good. And in Umtiti’s case, the decision he made for not opting for knee surgery to take part in the 2018 FIFA World Cup has changed the course of his career.
We are well aware that his muscle and knee problems began to emerge towards the end of the 2017/18 season. He had the option to undergo surgery to solve the problem looming over his knee. But instead of taking the medically prescribed route, he decided to find another way. His decision might have seen him win the world’s most coveted trophy with France, but he now faces the ramifications that came along with it.
“The easy thing would have been an operation, but I’m not like that. I’m strong mentally, and I don’t give up, even when it’s tough.
There were times when I said I should give up and have an operation. But I held out. During that time, I was quite cold and closed. I wasn’t happy. I just wanted to get out of that nightmare”
on his decision to avoid surgery prior to the 2018 FIFA World Cup
Umtiti has not been the same player since that fateful decision. He has missed a total of 38 games since the beginning of the 2018/19 season, which amounts to an entire season’s worth of games. Even if the Frenchman had the potential to be one of Barça’s best centre-backs, he now sees himself far from it.
With yet another setback to his left-knee ruling him out for an unspecified time, the fans are left fuming. The azulgrana supporters have seen enough, and want him to be replaced. With rumours of the club intending to bring back 19-year-old Eric García from Manchester City, Samuel’s time at the Camp Nou could be well over.
Clément Lenglet: a step up at the time of need
Ideally speaking, the Barcelona board would have never gone to sign Clément Lenglet if Samuel Umtiti had had no fitness issues. The former Sevilla man’s release clause was triggered with the sole intentions of having a defensive option incase Umtiti’s knee gave in. At least in the case, the directives’ farsightedness must be appreciated for bringing Clément in.
Since joining at the start of the 2018/19 season, Lenglet’s timely arrival has allowed him to get more games. Due to his fellow countryman’s injury crisis, he got to impose himself into the first-team. Lenglet grew into the role he was given with ease, and slowly became the club’s best defender. Particularly this season, he has been fantastic whenever relied upon. Tracking runs, winning defensive duals, fighting every aerial battle, Lenglet has even been a more proactive centre-back than Piqué who is senior to him.
Clément Lenglet seems to have taken up the spot of Samuel Umtiti in the French national team too | Photo by Imago
He has earned praise from the fans for being alert at all times. Albeit the backline’s overall inability to stay focussed throughout the 90 minutes, the critics have noticed Lenglet’s performances. He has rarely faltered, and also suits the club’s style of building from the back. Even if he can’t cover for everyone’s mistakes, he can ensure that he is not at fault, reducing the risk of error.
Lenglet is now on course to becoming the main man at the back. He still needs to work on his leadership qualities as at times he appears to be silent. A complete centre-back must have the vocational ability to have an imposing control over the entire backline. As he is clearly the club’s best defender at the moment, he must learn to command the back four. Still only 25, he has a lot of time to gain the experience and grow more into his role.
The unbecoming comparison
One man’s loss is another man’s gain. Umtiti hasn’t been anything close to what he was before his knee began to let him down. The issues have had a permanent effect on his overall game. His pace his dropped down massively, his positional awareness seems have diminished, and he’s now a shadow of his lost self. The reality of Umtiti’s situation was clearly seen in his disappointing performance against Celta de Vigo. That massively disgruntling outing has seen the fans run out of patience.
The reason why Quique Setién wanted to rely upon Samuel was that he was excellent going upfront. At his best, Umtiti can play a massive role in the build-up play. In addition to that, his physicality, pace, and defensive awareness made him a threat at both ends. Notwithstanding, these are the expectations that the manager and fans have on him when he is in form.
Despite the brilliant first two seasons from Samuel Umtiti at Barcelona, Clément Lenglet seems to have definitely won the race to his fellow countryman | Photo by Cristina Quicler / AFP via Getty Images
He has lost all the qualities that made him a really skilled defender. Even if he aims to work hard and regain his past shape, certain footballing skills need to be honed by playing regularly. The ability to defend is something that can’t be harnessed without consistent match time. To play more, he needs to improve his fitness. Everything seems to be intertwined in Umtiti’s case. With aims of achieving immediate results and silverware, the club can’t be patient with Samuel.
In contrast to Umtiti’s stance, Lenglet’s development seems to be consistent and more well-rounded. He poses a more calming presence in the back. With a more disciplined, patient, and controlled output, he continues to remain a successful player. The advantage with him is that he is down to earth and patient enough to wait for his chance.
At times, both Ernesto Valverde and Quique Setién tried to use Umtiti more due to the belief that he has a higher potential. Unlike the usual dressing room politics that has been increasing lately, Lenglet is pure and a wonderful professional. Clément poses a contrasting attitude to the preconceived notions on French players in regards to their overall discipline.
Clément Lenglet deserves to be in the position where he is. He has been patient, calm, and used whatever opportunities that were given to him. On the other hand, Umtiti’s future at Barça appears to be bleak. The club is bound to run out of patience with him and sell him when he is in demand. He could have been Barcelona’s first-choice centre-back for the years to come, but alas it wasn’t meant to be.
Fortunately for the culés, they already have his replacement in the form of Clément. He has the support of the fans and the drive to go on to remain a crucial component in Barça’s team. With numerous problems looming over Umtiti’s fitness and on pitch capabilities, the manager is bound to rely more on Lenglet. Even if Samuel were to sort his knee issues and regain his defensive qualities, the board will have to choose between him and Lenglet.
The chances of Umtiti making a comeback are less. Nevertheless, it’s not like he wouldn’t be supported by the fans if his efforts were bearing fruits. At some point, even he would understand that the club isn’t wrong to move on from him. After all, he knew the risks and consequences that he’d have to face for avoiding surgery. He was aware of how his career may be shortened if he prioritised the World Cup.
It is a decision that appears to be fatal to his Barça career, and there is nobody to blame but himself. With Clément Lenglet successfully taking over, it wouldn’t be surprising if Samuel Umtiti was sold in the coming window.
Using Machine Learning to predict Barcelona’s 2021/22 league season
Johan Cruyff famously said, “I’ve never seen a bag of money score a goal.” It is indisputable that money is not the only deciding factor behind a football club’s success. Time and time again, we have seen that football is chaotic and absurd. Anything can happen.
That being said, it is evident that statistically, the clubs with more money are usually the more successful ones. While one cannot predict the unpredictability that is engraved within football, an outcome that is statistically probable can be predicted. This article will explore the relationship between the points a club accumulates in a league season and the total value of the club’s squad. Then, Python will be used to build a linear regression model in order to predict the number of points Barcelona will obtain in the 21/22 season based on the club’s hypothetical squad.
Let us begin with visualizing the relationship between the total league points obtained by a club and the club’s total squad value. Since the amount of money spent on transfers has increased tremendously over the course of the last decade, in this article, only seasons 2014/15 – 2019/20 will be considered. Upon plotting the total points against the total squad value, it is evident that there is a positive correlation between the two. Granted, the correlation is not extremely strong, but it exists nonetheless.
A line of regression has been generated. The line’s gradient is approximately 0.05138986, and its y-intercept is approximately 44.5470726. There is only one dependant variable in question, club value/total value of squad, and so our line of regression can be modelled by the equation:
P = (0.05138986 )V + 44.5470726 where P is the points and V is the total squad value.
club_values = np.array(df['Values']).reshape(89,1) club_points = np.array(df['Point']).reshape(89,1) from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression linear_model = LinearRegression() linear_model.fit(club_values,club_points)
In order to predict the points accumulated based on Barcelona’s squad value next season, the squad value won’t directly be inputted into our equation above. The coefficient and the y-intercept have been rounded up after a certain number of decimal places, and so, to preserve the precision of the prediction, Python’s LinearRegression predict method will be utilized.
Now comes another challenging part of coming up with Barcelona’s hypothetical squad next season. Based on reports, it can be assumed that Samuel Umtiti, Miralem Pjanic, Martin Braithwaite and Phillipe Coutinho will be some of the notable players to leave. To compensate for the outgoing players, it can be assumed that Barcelona will sign Eric Garcia, David Alaba, Georginio Wijnaldum and Memphis Depay. Here is a table that contains all the players in Barcelona’s hypothetical 21/22 squad and their corresponding market values:
|PLAYER NAME||MARKET VALUE (MILLION POUNDS)|
|MARC ANDRE TER STEGEN||79.34|
|FRENKIE DE JONG||84.63|
|KONRAD DE LA FUENTE||2.64|
The club’s total value comes up to be £786.60 million. It is important to note that a player’s value is volatile. Transfermarkt updates player values every few months, and so it is extremely probable that this squad’s market value will be drastically different next season.
It is also important to understand that Transfermarkt’s market values are not official and so they are not always an accurate representation of a player’s true market value. Moreover, a player’s value is not always an accurate representation of their quality. Age is a key factor in determining market value, and so while a young player might have a high market value indicating that they are a bright prospect for the future, they might not necessarily be an excellent player at the time when the value is assigned.
Now that all of this has been established, the only thing left is making the prediction.
The machine learning model predicts that Barcelona will obtain 85 points in the 21/22 La Liga season. In the 19/20 season, Real Madrid won the league with 87 points, and in the 18/19 season, Barcelona won the league with 87 points as well. The difference between the points accumulated by the last two winning La Liga squads and the predicted points that Barcelona’s 21/22 squad will obtain is a mere 2 points. This shows that it is possible for Barcelona to win the league next season.
Since the correlation between the two variables, as observed from the data from the last 6 seasons, is not even close to being extremely strong, Barcelona’s 21/22 league points tally may be drastically different from what was predicted by the machine learning model. However, at the end of the day, the model can only work with the data it is exposed to.
Erling Haaland can change the course of Barcelona’s season. It would take forever to make predictions based on Barcelona’s hypothetical squads that include all of the club’s potential transfer targets, however, due to Haaland’s influence, an exception can be made for him. Laporta’s interest in signing Haaland has been widely reported.
However, he will cost a fortune this summer, and with Barcelona’s debt situation, it is unlikely that the Catalan club will pursue him in the upcoming transfer window. That being said like mentioned previously in the article, football is chaotic, and anything can happen.
Assuming that Barcelona does end up signing Haaland in the summer, Antoine Griezmann will most definitely have to leave (due to wages and the money that can be generated from his sale). Haaland’s current value is £99 million, and so Barcelona’s total squad value for next season, after being corrected for Griezmann’s exit and Haaland’s arrival is £831.60 million.
Haaland’s addition can put 21/22 Barcelona on level with the previous two Spanish champions in terms of total points won. The difference in points between a squad containing Haaland and one not containing him is only two. However, an argument about whether signing Haaland is worth it, is not in the scope of this article.
“Transition seasons do not exist at Barcelona.”Joan Laporta | Presidential campaign
A club of Barcelona’s stature will always compete for titles. The machine learning model shows that Barcelona is in contention for the 2021/22 La Liga title. Ronald Koeman has done a splendid job at the Blaugrana club this season, and there is no logical reason for him to not do an even better job next season after getting fresh players in the summer.
While football at its core is unpredictable, statistically, it would not hurt to trust Barcelona to win the 2021/22 La Liga title.