After a glamorous win against Villarreal on Sunday, Barcelona will be hosting 20th-placed Espanyol on Wednesday. Ahead of such derby, this tactical analysis will examine the strengths and weaknesses of RCD Espanyol, who would be officially relegated to the Second Division in case of defeat.
On Wednesday night, the Camp Nou will host a Catalan derby full of history and rivalry but that will take place under unusual circumstances. First, of course, due to the absence of fans, which are always invaluable in such local meetings. And second, because the two teams facing each other will have a lot of stake, yet a positive or negative result could change their situation next to nothing.
Barcelona come from beating Villarreal by 1–4 on the weekend, in what arguably was the best collective performance in the Quique Setién era. That said, the blaugranas continue to be four points behind leaders Real Madrid, who have the La Liga title within their reach. Meanwhile, RCD Espanyol are sitting in the twentieth position in the table, and they are destined to be relegated. A defeat against their city rivals Barça would officially see them drop down to the Second Division.
It has been a season to forget for RCD Espanyol. A season to forget after an unforgettable season. The 2018/19 campaign had seen Espanyol reach the European spots for the first time in twelve years, lead by a fully cohesive team with Joan Francesc Ferrer Rubi as the coach and striker Borja Iglesias as their top goalscorer. It was all joy and celebrations at Cornellà, but what would follow was disaster.
The two most important figures of such side, manager Rubi and centre-forward Borja Iglesias, left to Real Betis in the summer of 2019. Although Betis had finished lower than them in the table, the project seemed more encouraging than Espanyol’s. In spite of the on-pitch success, the institutional instability from the Periquitos became evident in the following course.
President Chen Yansheng has not been able to cope with the troubles at the club, which have provoked, among others, a sporting failure, a triple change of coaches, and the sacking of directors Roger Guasch and Óscar Perarnau. Following the exit of Rubi last summer, it was B team manager David Gallego who was appointed as his replacement. It looked promising at first, for having been at the club for many years, but two problems came together: some limitations in the squad – such as not having signed a proper forward after Borja Iglesias’ departure –, and the inability to optimise the resources in the squad.
The team registered its second worst start to La Liga in 25 years, and Gallego was sacked in October after Espanyol were 19th in the table. Former Girona and Sevilla tactician Pablo Machín was hired, but he couldn’t revert such negative form and, 77 days later, he was shown the exit door when the team was standing in the 20th position.
Abelardo looked to provide some tactical assurance to Espanyol | Photo by AFP7 via Imago
Abelardo Fernández, an expert at dealing with such complicated situations as shown during his time at Sporting Gijón and Alavés, was chosen as Machín’s replacement. The early signs were very encouraging. Abelardo acted with coherence, using simple yet easily applicable ideas such as a 4–4–2, defensive organisation, wing play and lateral crosses, and verticality. Espanyol drew 2–2 against Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona, and the signing of star striker Raúl de Tomás from Benfica just made the levels of hope skyrocket at the RCDE Stadium.
But, while the Catalans gained momentum, the coronavirus break heavily hurt them. While they beat Deportivo Alavés by 2–0 in the return of the competition, since then it has been one draw and five losses for the Blanquiazules, with a tragic streak that has all but confirmed their relegation to the Second Division.
Still, before hosting Real Madrid a week and a half ago, and in a state of maximum desperation, the Espanyol presidency decided to sack Abelardo. He hadn’t done that bad, and many fans saw him as a coach more than good enough to manage them in the second tier in the following campaign. But rushed decisions were taken once more.
After Abelardo, Francisco Joaquín Pérez Rufete, who had previously been acting as the sporting director of Espanyol, was announced as the interim coach for the remainder of the season. He hasn’t managed to revert the team’s fortunes either, with two losses in two matches. Tonight they will be visiting the Camp Nou, the stadium of their great city rivals Barcelona, and if they lose again their relegation will already be official in spite of three more games being left.
Last five league finishes
2014/15 | 10th · 49 points
2015/16 | 14th · 43 points
2016/17 | 8th · 56 points
2017/18 | 11th · 49 points
2018/19 | 7th · 53 points
A frequent problem with Espanyol in recent seasons is that they had often fallen in positions of indifference. Not close enough to the red zone, but neither to the European spots. Good enough to survive, but not to progress and make a step forward. Until last campaign, in which Rubi sent them to the international competitions for the first time in twelve years thanks to a seventh-placed finish in La Liga.
After immense optimism following a decade of indifference came the tragedy. Now Espanyol, with 11 points less than 17th-placed Eibar and with only four matches remaining, are on the cusp of their fifth relegation in history. The previous ones had been in 1962, 1969, 1989 and 1993, the last one being 27 years ago.
Despite having won only four Copas del Rey and no La Liga titles in their history, Espanyol are a historic club in Spain. In fact, after Real Madrid, Barcelona, Athletic Club and Valencia – the former three have never tasted the Second Division –, Espanyol are the fifth club with most seasons spent in the top flight of Spanish football: 85 in total. Now, though, the counter will be stopped as Espanyol will be returning to what’s said to be the hell of football.
The first two matches from Rufete as the first team manager, especially considering he is an interim manager, are not enough to reveal his tactical preferences. Still, he has continued along the operating line from former coach Abelardo. If last term under Rubi Espanyol were characterised by their search for possession, in recent months they have mostly tried to rely on a lower block and direct attacks in order to survive in the division.
In January, after their alarming situation in the table, Espanyol decided to make some important additions to their squad. Mostly, Getafe centre-back Leandro Cabrera, Rayo Vallecano attacking midfielder or winger Adrián Embarba, and Benfica centre-forward Raúl de Tomás. They have all made a contribution, but it has by no means been enough to fix all the collective problems.
The problems started in midfield | Photo by Eric Alonso via Getty Images
Rufete, like Abelardo, has been using a 4–4–2 or 4–4–1–1 with a more natural striker like Raúl de Tomás as the reference, partnered up by a secondary striker like Wu Lei or Embarba himself. One of the reasons for the huge difference in the Periquitos’ performance this course compared to the last one, though, has been in midfield. Espanyol decided to modify what was already working a year ago.
Pivot Marc Roca alongside Óscar Melendo and Sergi Darder as interiors, all of them raised at their academy, sounded like a perfect combination for a 4–3–3. Nevertheless, when Espanyol switched to a 4–4–2, all struggled. Melendo and Darder, in particular, and in spite of their brutal technical quality to operate in central positions, have mostly been deployed as wide midfielders in the flanks. This has not benefitted them nor the team.
Espanyol don’t have the worst attack nor the worst defence in La Liga, but the second-worst attack and the third-worst defence. Still, with 27 goals scored and 54 conceded, they are sitting rock bottom with the worst goal difference in the competition: –27. They have better individual talents than the likes of Leganés, Mallorca or Eibar, but it is the lack of consistency and poor tactical work behind the team what has damaged them through all these 34 league games so far.
Player to watch: Raúl de Tomás
In January, Espanyol welcomed 25-year-old centre-forward Raúl de Tomás as their saviour. The former Benfica, Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid man certainly deserves much better than to be fighting to avoid relegation. And, when he arrived, it was already proved that he could be decisive wherever he went. The Blanquiazules‘ best player by some distance, he made an immediate impact as soon as he arrived.
In fact, Raúl scored four goals in his first four matches with Espanyol. Lethal, self-sufficient, excellent both in and around the box, capable of generating chances out of nowhere…Espanyol, with full-backs that make no contribution going forward and midfielders that feel uncomfortable in their respective positions, may well be the team with the worst attacking structure in La Liga. Thus, and especially with the sale of Borja Iglesias, they needed someone that could create opportunities and score goals on his own.
Raúl de Tomás has been too good for Espanyol | Photo by Aitor Alcalde via Getty Images
Nevertheless, after his four opening goals, R.d.T. hasn’t scored since, picking a couple of injuries along the way. When fit, the problem has obviously not been him, but the context. While he is very autonomous, Espanyol have barely had any automatisms to progress the ball and they have greatly struggled to send balls to Raúl de Tomás.
It is undeniable that Barcelona are utterly superior to Espanyol. Individually, the differences are obvious. But even collectively, and despite Barça’s several problems over the season, the blaugranas are far more cohesive and have way more clarity than their local rivals.
“We will fight until there is a silver lining”
Francisco Joaquín Pérez Rufete
Espanyol interim coach
Espanyol being last in the table certainly is not by chance. Everything that had gone well for them last season has collapsed or has been brought down. Defensively and offensively, on and off the pitch, they have been the embodiment of instability.
With that being said, and even if they are virtually relegated already, Espanyol will be playing for their lives tonight. With nothing to lose, and with the passion that a derby generates, Rufete’s men will be ultra motivated in their visit to the Camp Nou. As if there was no tomorrow.
Using Machine Learning to predict Barcelona’s 2021/22 league season
Johan Cruyff famously said, “I’ve never seen a bag of money score a goal.” It is indisputable that money is not the only deciding factor behind a football club’s success. Time and time again, we have seen that football is chaotic and absurd. Anything can happen.
That being said, it is evident that statistically, the clubs with more money are usually the more successful ones. While one cannot predict the unpredictability that is engraved within football, an outcome that is statistically probable can be predicted. This article will explore the relationship between the points a club accumulates in a league season and the total value of the club’s squad. Then, Python will be used to build a linear regression model in order to predict the number of points Barcelona will obtain in the 21/22 season based on the club’s hypothetical squad.
Let us begin with visualizing the relationship between the total league points obtained by a club and the club’s total squad value. Since the amount of money spent on transfers has increased tremendously over the course of the last decade, in this article, only seasons 2014/15 – 2019/20 will be considered. Upon plotting the total points against the total squad value, it is evident that there is a positive correlation between the two. Granted, the correlation is not extremely strong, but it exists nonetheless.
A line of regression has been generated. The line’s gradient is approximately 0.05138986, and its y-intercept is approximately 44.5470726. There is only one dependant variable in question, club value/total value of squad, and so our line of regression can be modelled by the equation:
P = (0.05138986 )V + 44.5470726 where P is the points and V is the total squad value.
club_values = np.array(df['Values']).reshape(89,1) club_points = np.array(df['Point']).reshape(89,1) from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression linear_model = LinearRegression() linear_model.fit(club_values,club_points)
In order to predict the points accumulated based on Barcelona’s squad value next season, the squad value won’t directly be inputted into our equation above. The coefficient and the y-intercept have been rounded up after a certain number of decimal places, and so, to preserve the precision of the prediction, Python’s LinearRegression predict method will be utilized.
Now comes another challenging part of coming up with Barcelona’s hypothetical squad next season. Based on reports, it can be assumed that Samuel Umtiti, Miralem Pjanic, Martin Braithwaite and Phillipe Coutinho will be some of the notable players to leave. To compensate for the outgoing players, it can be assumed that Barcelona will sign Eric Garcia, David Alaba, Georginio Wijnaldum and Memphis Depay. Here is a table that contains all the players in Barcelona’s hypothetical 21/22 squad and their corresponding market values:
|PLAYER NAME||MARKET VALUE (MILLION POUNDS)|
|MARC ANDRE TER STEGEN||79.34|
|FRENKIE DE JONG||84.63|
|KONRAD DE LA FUENTE||2.64|
The club’s total value comes up to be £786.60 million. It is important to note that a player’s value is volatile. Transfermarkt updates player values every few months, and so it is extremely probable that this squad’s market value will be drastically different next season.
It is also important to understand that Transfermarkt’s market values are not official and so they are not always an accurate representation of a player’s true market value. Moreover, a player’s value is not always an accurate representation of their quality. Age is a key factor in determining market value, and so while a young player might have a high market value indicating that they are a bright prospect for the future, they might not necessarily be an excellent player at the time when the value is assigned.
Now that all of this has been established, the only thing left is making the prediction.
The machine learning model predicts that Barcelona will obtain 85 points in the 21/22 La Liga season. In the 19/20 season, Real Madrid won the league with 87 points, and in the 18/19 season, Barcelona won the league with 87 points as well. The difference between the points accumulated by the last two winning La Liga squads and the predicted points that Barcelona’s 21/22 squad will obtain is a mere 2 points. This shows that it is possible for Barcelona to win the league next season.
Since the correlation between the two variables, as observed from the data from the last 6 seasons, is not even close to being extremely strong, Barcelona’s 21/22 league points tally may be drastically different from what was predicted by the machine learning model. However, at the end of the day, the model can only work with the data it is exposed to.
Erling Haaland can change the course of Barcelona’s season. It would take forever to make predictions based on Barcelona’s hypothetical squads that include all of the club’s potential transfer targets, however, due to Haaland’s influence, an exception can be made for him. Laporta’s interest in signing Haaland has been widely reported.
However, he will cost a fortune this summer, and with Barcelona’s debt situation, it is unlikely that the Catalan club will pursue him in the upcoming transfer window. That being said like mentioned previously in the article, football is chaotic, and anything can happen.
Assuming that Barcelona does end up signing Haaland in the summer, Antoine Griezmann will most definitely have to leave (due to wages and the money that can be generated from his sale). Haaland’s current value is £99 million, and so Barcelona’s total squad value for next season, after being corrected for Griezmann’s exit and Haaland’s arrival is £831.60 million.
Haaland’s addition can put 21/22 Barcelona on level with the previous two Spanish champions in terms of total points won. The difference in points between a squad containing Haaland and one not containing him is only two. However, an argument about whether signing Haaland is worth it, is not in the scope of this article.
“Transition seasons do not exist at Barcelona.”Joan Laporta | Presidential campaign
A club of Barcelona’s stature will always compete for titles. The machine learning model shows that Barcelona is in contention for the 2021/22 La Liga title. Ronald Koeman has done a splendid job at the Blaugrana club this season, and there is no logical reason for him to not do an even better job next season after getting fresh players in the summer.
While football at its core is unpredictable, statistically, it would not hurt to trust Barcelona to win the 2021/22 La Liga title.