The 19-year-old American had a breakout 2019/20 season, making him one of the most highly-rated young full backs in football. Could he be the next Ajax product to make the move to Barça? Let’s look at what he could offer the side.
Born and raised in Almere, Netherlands, Sergiño Dest is still yet to leave the nation in his club career. However, with a Surinamese-American father, he has always represented the United States national team, first at youth level, and now with the senior side. As a result, Ajax’s current 19-year-old promising right-back would become the first American to ever play for Barcelona if he were signed – although youngster Konrad de la Fuente might not be far off.
While no Americans have taken the field for Barça, there have certainly been plenty of former Ajax players. The connection between the two clubs’ style of play has allowed for many successful transfers from Amsterdam to Barcelona, and there are signs to suggest that Sergiño Dest could be next in line. Coming through the Ajax system, Dest is unsurprisingly calm and skillful on the ball, and he excels in the attack. His stats back this up, and show a player who seems to be ready to take the next step in his career.
Immediately, the attacking output of Dest stands out. For xAssists per 90 minutes, or expected assists – a measure of the probability of the shots he assisted resulting in a goal –, Dest was well above the league average at the 77th percentile. His 0.53 key passes per 90, and 1.05 deep completions – passes completed within 20 meters of the opposition goal line – per 90 ranks him even higher.
Where the teenager really stands out is with his 0.7 crosses into the box per 90. This is a truly elite tally, as it puts him just below the 98th percentile of Eredivisie’s full-backs. Clearly, Sergiño Dest is adept with his passing in attacking areas, an important skill to be possessed by a Barcelona full-back.
In terms of his progressive passing, Dest had a very low volume of just 6.84 per 90, but his efficiency with those passes was exceptional, with an 84.62% completion rate. So while he may be looking to add more to this area of his game, he at least shows quality and precision when he does attempt to play a progressive ball.
It is also worth noting that Dest prefers to progress the ball through dribbling and carrying more than most fullbacks. His skill, agility, and confidence are reflected with him coming in at the 95th percentile for dribbles per 90, and the 84th for progressive runs.
Meanwhile, Sergiño’s defensive numbers show a bit more to be worried about. He only completed 8.88 successful defensive actions per 90 last season, putting him in just the 11th percentile for Eredivisie full-backs. Some of this can be excused as Ajax tend to dominate in possession, and thus Dest does less defending than almost any other full back in the league. However, even when accounting for this possession gap, his possession adjusted interceptions per 90 are still below league average – just below the 41st percentile.
The redeeming factor for Dest’s defending is his efficiency. He won 64.29% of his defensive duels, putting him just above the 70th percentile. While his ball winning leaves much to be desired, it is at least encouraging that Dest doesn’t seem to get beat by attackers often.
To summarize, Dest is an incredibly active full back in the attacking third. He puts in a ton of crosses to the penalty area, and gets the ball to his teammates often in good shooting positions. To progress the ball, Dest doesn’t utilize his passing too often, but he is very inefficient when he does. Instead, he is adept at beating defenders and driving the ball forward when he has space. On the defensive side, a weakness of Dest is shown in that he doesn’t win the ball often, but he shows potential as he wins the majority of his duels.
To give these stats and Dest’s profile some context, let’s look at Barça’s current right back, Nelson Semedo.
For expected assists, key passes, and crosses into the penalty area, Semedo’s numbers are poor to mediocre, and well below Dest’s. He does have a higher cross completion rate than the American, but considering that it’s still below the league average, and that Dest makes over four times more crosses into the box per 90, that’s not too impressive.
The only attacking attribute where Semedo compares well to Dest is deep completions: Semedo made 1.04 per 90 (84.7th percentile for La Liga full-backs), while Dest made 1.05 per 90 (81.8th percentile for Eredivisie full-backs). Nonetheless, when you recall that Semedo has a far lower tally of expected assists and key passes, you can see that Dest is actually doing more with these completions close to the opposition goal.
The Portuguese bests the American for progressive passes per 90 – 7.37 to 6.84 – but his completion rate on those passes is 10% lower. The two do share at least one similarity: they both stand out more for progressing the ball with dribbling than they do with passing. While Dest was 95th percentile in dribbles and 84th in progressive runs, Semedo was 83rd percentile in dribbles and 91st in progressive runs. Even Semedo’s biggest doubters can’t deny his strength in dribbling, particularly using his pace to burst past opponents. But unfortunately for the former Benfica man, Dest also possesses these qualities.
While it’s hard to deny that Semedo is the safer option of the two defensively, and a more adept ball winner at the moment, Dest’s numbers are still not that far off. Semedo makes just 0.09 more successful defensive actions per 90 and 0.94 more possession adjusted interceptions per 90, while Dest’s win rate on defensive duels is actually higher by 3.15%.
Ultimately, the numbers are on Dest’s side. They show that he can replicate Semedo’s greatest asset, his dribbling while providing much more offensive threat. Semedo probably has the upper hand defensively, but with how the game is played today, full-backs in a bigger side can provide the team with far more value in attack than they do in defense. It’s impossible to not look at these numbers and think of Dest as the better fit for Barça, but the question then becomes whether or not he would be able to replicate this performance if the move was actually made.
Even though many have made the move from Ajax to Barça in the past, and even though many have been very successful, there will always be reasonable doubt over whether a player can make the jump from the Eredivisie to La Liga. That is certainly true for Dest. In this past Champions League campaign, Valencia, who finished 9th in La Liga, finished top of their group, two spots ahead of Ajax who were sent to the Europa League. When Ajax got there, they were eliminated in their first tie by Getafe, who finished 8th in La Liga.
No matter which way you look at it, the quality of La Liga is much greater than that of the Eredivisie. At the top of the table, the European places, midtable, all the way to the bottom, teams in La Liga have more resources and more quality. Dest would be defending against better wingers and forwards, and trying to attack against better full-backs and centre-backs. Would he still thrive against this consistently higher-quality opposition?
Sergiño Dest would have to get used to the higher demands of La Liga and Champions League | Photo by Manuel Queimadelos Alonso via Getty Images
An additional concern with him is his inexperience in general. The 2019/20 campaign was his first with any senior football, meaning he has less than 1,500 minutes of top flight experience under his belt. Sergiño Dest only added 585 additional minutes in European competition – 405 in the Champions League, 180 in the Europa League – and is still yet to experience a Champions League knockout tie, which he would definitely have to be ready for at Barcelona.
As a result of this inexperience, Sergiño Dest is still a very raw player, and far from a finished product. He still has issues in his game that need to be filtered out with coaching and experience. Things like defensive positioning, understanding when and where to be progressive, and when to be conservative, can still cause issues for Dest. This is completely understandable for any young player, but if the board is looking for an immediate solution at right-back, it may raise concerns. As for any potential signing without much experience, and from a weaker league, there are questions as to whether or not Dest’s performance will translate to the next level.
In the transfer market there are no guarantees, especially when looking for the caliber of player that Barcelona want at right-back, so why not take a chance on Sergiño Dest? We have just seen a certain Canadian full-back win the treble with Bayern Munich as one of their best players. Where was he before his move to Germany? Playing in the MLS, as a left winger, at just 18 years old.
The story of Alphonso Davies should serve as an example for Barça’s recruitment of the right-back position, and in general. The club forcing itself to buy established players for huge fees has led to far too many flops in recent years. Now, especially with the tight financial situation brought on by the pandemic, why not spend smart on a young player who has all the attributes that we want in our full-backs? Especially when most of those attributes are missing in our current options.
While Dest is far from a finished product, with the proper coaching and development he could undoubtedly become one of the best full-backs in football. He is incredibly confident and skillful on the ball, efficient with his passing, and contributes a great amount to his team’s attack. With those building blocks already in place, if he could just develop in a few areas of his game, everyone would look back after three, five, even ten years with his current youth, and think how much of a bargain he was.
Detailed Analysis: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Barcelona
In collaboration with Anurag Agate.
Ronald Koeman’s Barcelona faced Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid at the Wanda Metropolitano. In a game marred by defensive blunders and devastating injuries, Barcelona lost the game 1-0 to fellow title-challengers.
A 1-0 loss to Atletico Madrid in La Liga left Barcelona reeling midtable. This was also the first time Diego Simeone’s side beat Barcelona in the La Liga. Coupled with crucial injuries to Gerard Pique and Sergi Roberto, Barcelona now face a dire path ahead of their UCL game against Dynamo Kyiv.
Barcelona structure and formation
Ronald Koeman went in with his tried and tested 4-2-3-1 formation. Marc Andre Ter Stegen started in goal again. Gerard Pique and Clement Lenglet formed the centre back pairing, flanked by Jordi Alba and Sergi Roberto. In the absence of Sergio Busquets, Miralem Pjanic stepped up to form the double pivot with the ever-present Frenkie de Jong.
Pedri and Ousmane Dembele played on the flanks, with Lionel Messi in the hole and Antoine Griezmann upfront. However, as before, Messi and Griezmann had lots of interchanging positions. Pedri played more in the half-space in possession while Dembele stayed out wide. This often made the team structure a lop-sided 4-4-2. In defensive transitions, it was always a 4-4-2 with Griezmann dropping deeper to defend. Messi restricted his pressing to zones high up the pitch.
Frenkie de Jong had the freedom to push up high in the first half. However, the absence of Ansu Fati meant that the usual overload on the left side did not work in this game. Pedri had a poor game in general. Him moving far too infield to let Alba run down the left did not quite work – the passing was far too restricted by Atleti’s excellent defending. A second-half injury to Pique meant that de Jong had to play 35 minutes roughly as a centre back, which he did very well.
Atletico structure and formation
Atletico were missing some key personnel as well, most notably perhaps, Luis Suarez up top. They also missed a regular left-back Renan Lodi, and Hector Herrera and Lucas Torreira in midfield. They lined up in a highly asymmetric 4-4-2/5-3-2 structure and style.
Stefan Savic and Jose Gimenez formed the centre back partnership. Mario Hermoso played in a hybrid centre-back/extremely defensive full-back role. Kieran Trippier was the more offensive fullback, practically functioning as a wing-back. Yannick Carrasco and Marcos Llorente joined the reliable duo of Koke and Saul Niguez in central midfield as wide midfielders. Carrasco played almost in a hybrid wide midfield/wingback role. Joao Felix and Angel Correa formed the front two.
The hybrid system was particularly evident in the different phases of the game. In attack, Hermoso would push out wide like a full back but stay in more defensive, withdrawn zones. Carrasco had the freedom to stay wide looking for overlapping runs to meet Felix’s clever passes. On the other side, Llorente would shift infield, allowing Trippier to bomb forward.
Felix himself overlapped down the left side several times, trying to create numeric overloads against Roberto and Pique, dragging Pjanic wide in the process. Carrasco’s and Felix’s overlaps on the left, coupled with Saul Niguez moving ball-near side and Correa dropping in to give options – this combination created quite a few problems in the first half. Here is an example – it led to Saul’s shot early on which was saved by ter Stegen.
The game was more or less evenly balanced – neither team were outright dominant than the other in any aspect. Here is the game data at a glance:
Barcelona enjoyed marginally more possession, marginally more shots and shots on target, and a better press than Atletico. Of course, the hosts had the all-deciding goal in their favour. Neither team generated high-quality shots overall, as the shot map and xG flowchart shows :
Barcelona’s possession superiority was pretty stale. Barcelona failed to dominate critical territorial zones, measured by field tilt – which is the percentage share of final third passes of each team. Even though Barcelona had higher field tilt, it was only marginal. What strikes out is that just the goal came when Barcelona were enjoying their best bit of territorial dominance.
Buildup to shots and goals
Next we take a look at some of the shots and the goal. Early on, Barcelona had the chance to score. Dembele burned his marker with pace and sent a cross into the box. It was met by a clever flick by Greizmann. The shot sailed high unfortunately.
Atleti had their chances on the other side as well. Soon after Saul saw his shot saved, the other flank created yet another moment of danger. A brilliant interchange of passing involving Correa and Trippier met Llorente’s clever run into the box. The shot crashed against the bar.
Towards the end of the first half, Barcelona could have scored again. There was a brilliant bit of buildup, a clever run by Griezmann to drag a defender, and then Messi ghosted blindside of the center mids to meet Alba’s nutmeg pass. The angle was too tight and Messi failed to score.
Soon after, Barcelona conceded the goal. Pique stepped up to intercept a long ball. Ideally, that should have been fine, except Pique miscontrolled the pass. That left almost everyone out of position. A simple ball over the top released Carrasco into oceans of space. But the maddening part perhaps was that ter Stegen left his box wildly to tackle the Belgian. He missed; Carrasco did not – he scored into an empty net from distance.
In the second half, Barcelona had chances to equalize. However, Lenglet headed straight at Jan Oblak twice. Greizmann headed straight at Oblak once. Barcelona failed to engineer any better chances than those. The key passes map shows the crosses into the box:
Atletico’s strength lies in engaging from wide areas. In this game, their biggest threats came again from the wide zones. Hermoso, Koke, Saul and Felix regularly released Carrasco and Trippier down the flanks. Trippier would often look for cutbacks or layoff into Llorente upfield.
Barcelona on the other hand tried to create from all possible zones. Frenkie de Jong managed to pull off a wonderful long pass into the box that Greizmann miscontrolled. Dembele single-handedly created chances from the right. The combinations of Alba and Messi created – in subdued amounts – danger from the other side.
For Barcelona, Messi, de Jong, Dembele and Alba were the bulk progressive passers. For Atleti, Koke, Trippier, Hermoso and Savic progressed the ball the most.
Both teams also tried to use width a lot. Surprisingly, Barcelona had more switches of play than Atleti, who have built their game to attack wider areas. For Barcelona, perhaps the reason for frequent switching was that they could not progress a lot directly.
The game data table posted above shows us that neither team pressed a lot. PPDA, which is a proxy for pressing intensity, was around 20 for both teams (low values of PPDA indicate high pressing). Here are the maps showing the defensive activities of both team:
Atleti forbade any progress down the centre. Upfield, they tried to press Pedri and Alba from creating too much danger. Deep in their half, they tried to force Dembele as wide as possible and tried to isolate him. Barcelona pressed all over the pitch in the middle-third. In deeper zones, they had to deal with the wide threats of Carrasco and Felix, and Llorente’s infield runs. The following plot also shows how Atleti forced passes wide and forced mistakes :
Two recurring issues troubled Barcelona yet again. The lack of chemistry and the lack of experience of the youth meant that certain runs went untracked. Atleti’s rapid front line dragged Barcelona into wrong zones, allowing trailing players to ghost into blindside runs. Saul and Llorente’s efforts at goal are perfect examples of this. In the first case, Pjanic was pulled in, leaving Saul free. In the second case, Pedri’s inexperience led to him losing his mark against Llorente completely.
Speed is always an issue that Barcelona has had trouble against. Llorente’s quick underlaps created quite a bit of trouble for Lenglet. Here is yet another example of a run – the pass from Llorente was thankfully cleared.
The goal was a combination of poor positioning and lack of speed, combined with some poor touch and terrible decision-making. Pique was out of position when he made the failed interception. No one in the team was speedy enough to catch up to Carrasco down the left. Ter Stegen should have communicated better with Lenglet and stayed in the box because Lenglet was haring down to secure the centre.
Issues have now been compounded with injuries to Pique and Roberto. If they face lengthy spells away from the pitch, Barcelona are stretched thin in the defence department. De Jong looks set to continue as a centre back for the next game at the very least and Sergino Dest will have to start. Barcelona faces extremely testing times ahead.