As Barça lost the La Liga title after a home defeat against Osasuna and, especially, an extremely inconsistent season, it is time to look back at all the chronological events that occurred through this Barcelona league campaign.
“Real Madrid did their job, but we helped them a lot in that”. This is how Barcelona’s captain Lionel Messi analysed Barça’s La Liga season yesterday night, after the 1–2 loss to Osasuna in the last la Liga game at the Camp Nou this term. And there is no better way to sum it all up. Real Madrid deserved their 34th title, but Barça, oh dear Barça, you have been extremely disappointing.
While Messi spoke for about four minutes in that post-match interview, he could have gone on and on about this year’s problems. But nobody could momentarily go through all of the issues that the Catalan team is facing. What Barcelona can do…better said, what Barcelona have to do, is analyse where it all went wrong. And unfortunately the points of disconnect are a worrisome number, just as Barça’s inability to perform consistently during the season. That is if you don’t even consider what happened outside of the pitch, because that’s a moment where the situation goes south quickly. Very quickly.
There’s an Italian saying that states that “the one who begins well has already done half of the work”. Well, Barça didn’t. And their difficulties started even before that visit to Athletic Club’s San Mamés. With a summer full of transfer rumours, with “Neymar’s coming, Neymar’s not coming” amongst others, rather than the (by now) vintage hashtags wanting both Ernesto Valverde and president Josep Maria Bartomeu out of the club, Barça’s preseason was already packed with what could have easily been called an Oscar-worthy thriller.
With unfortunate circumstances, the season didn’t start well for Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona | Photo by AFP7 / Zuma via Imago
Then even worse news came from the pitch, where Lionel Messi got injured during his first training session after his holidays. An injury that seemed worriless at first, but proved worrisome at last. But with the new French addition to the roaster, the World Cup champion Antoine Griezmann, the hope for the blaugrana fans was that the latter could replace the captain without too much problems: having Messi on the field is always better than the alternative, but still, having some sort of damage control ready to go is always better than not.
The most exciting moment of our summer, though, could have never been outcasted by anything: Frenkie de Jong’s presentation at the Camp Nou. Talent takes different shapes: what a shape that of the Dutchman, what a shape. Another transfer (not) worth mentioning was the team’s newest back-up for left-back Jordi Alba, Junior Firpo.
But, as the season approached its start, nothing could have been worse than the reality that was being depicted in front of the culés‘ own eyes. Ready, start, go. First game, first loss. A 38-year-old in Aritz Aduriz took the ‘L’ out of Griezmann’s features and used it against Barcelona. Furthermore, Luis Suárez got injured and still looked as an embarrassing shadow of himself; Rafinha Alcântara was the best for Barça upon entering; and Griezmann at the beginning of his Valverde career was deployed practically as, well, a left full-back. Not a bad start. Have you already made your popcorns?
With the best friends up there both injured, in Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez, and with a clear and obvious attacking problem in terms of volume of players, Valverde was hoping in a miracle. But while the coach probably thought about Neymar Júnior, God brought on Earth two La Masía wonderkids on Ernesto’s lap. Carles Pérez firstly, Ansu Fati secondly, while Rafinha was incredibly loaned out to Celta de Vigo the last day of the transfer market, even though the squad was clearly low on volumes.
Youth, and particularly Ansu Fati, have been the main positive from this campaign for Barça | Photo by Photo Agency via Imago
With Carles Aleñá, Carles Pérez and Ansu, Barça was able to go back to some of the past illustrious youth academy successes, since the three boys – especially the latter two – were able to impose their strengths on an almost lost side. But while the season slowly went onwards, the azulgranas‘ performances remained contained around the Camp Nou’s walls and the so much awaited MSG attacking trio never took off.
With Suárez (not) fit again and Messi fully reintegrated in the team only on week eight of La Liga, Valverde’s team was able to score a lot at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game until the manager’s departure. On the other hand, it wasn’t as confident and focused away from Barcelona, where the Catalans gained only one point within the first three matches of the season, thanks to a header from then-16-year-old Ansu Fati.
After the first half of the league, Barça had already lost three times and drawn another three away from home, with the Wanda Metropolitano match against Atlético de Madrid that could have seemed the perfect turning point to make a switch. But in the end it turned out to be only a mere act of brilliance by both Messi and Marc-André ter Stegen in getting a tight 1–0 victory.
And while Real Madrid also had some issues at the beginning of the campaign, Barça was feeling way too comfortable even without their sparkling and brilliant football, even with a kind of inconsistency that was still worrying and detrimental to the title chances. Slowly, the Madrid side was gaining confidence, game after game.
The postponed El Clásico gave Barça’s world the sight of a team that nobody really knew. That wasn’t their team. That was something else. That goalless draw proved to be the lowest point in Valverde’s journey as the club’s manager, at least this term. A 0–0 that, beside being boring, was also far from what the pitch said. Real Madrid dominated the Camp Nou as has rarely been seen in more than a decade. If you add a couple of clear penalties that weren’t awarded to Los Blancos, you can’t deny the fact that that point was a gift for Barça and a wasted opportunity for Real Madrid. Almost a regret for Zinedine Zidane’s men. Valverde reached the tip of the iceberg in that match.
The 0–0 against Real Madrid was a lost opportunity from Barça to get a critical home win against their biggest title rivals | Photo by Imago
And while the draw against a bottom side team as Espanyol didn’t do the trick, Ernesto saw that tip definitely fall after the defeat in the semi-finals of January’s Spanish Super Cup, against Atlético. It can’t be denied the fact that this, to be honest, wasn’t a moment of particular brilliance from the board, rather than from Valverde. While he should have been lifted from his job after the Liverpool debacle, after the 18/19 course, that duel against Atleti wasn’t the time to sack him.
No great team sack a manager mid-season, unless it is something catastrophic – as has been Roma and Liverpool. Barça were at the top of La Liga, despite their inconsistency. And above all, they had probably played their best game of the campaign against the Rojiblancos.
While this is not the place nor the time to discuss his managerial quality, at that point Valverde deserved to finish the season because, love him or hate him, he always respected the club and gave it all achieving some results, even with the poorest Barça side of the decade. It is not random when you hear and read that he had a good relationship with the dressing room. And often times, the solidity of a group is more important than the technical skills of the group itself.
Then Quique Setién came. Admittedly, his arrival excited the majority of fans. Everyone had seen his style of play and supporters all wanted to believe that, in spite of his inexperience at the biggest stage, he could bring back some of the entertainment and energy the club was all longing for. He came with ideas, excitement for having to deal with superstars such as the likes of Messi and Sergio Busquets.
“I’m still not aware of what it means to coach the best player in the world and his teammates. Messi is Messi, Busquets is Busquets, Piqué is Piqué, but everyone must earn their place. I’m sure I will have a great relationship with them all. I am a direct and sincere person, I won’t beat around the bush. If I see something I don’t like, I’ll talk with them”
in his first press conference as a Barça manager
And culés couldn’t believe their eyes when Quique greeted young midfielder Riqui Puig on his first training session as the new manager. But he would give him the chance he deserved after the lockdown, not before. The debut for Setién was actually good. Despite winning only one goal to nil against Granada, more than a thousand passes were being made by the locals at the Camp Nou and the fans were able to see at least a shadow of their true identity, of the true Barça game. The Spanish giants seemed to be on the right path as that was only Setién’s first clash in charge.
“I don’t have titles or a strong curriculum. but I love this philosophy. My teams play good football and that’s the only thing I can guarantee: they will play good football”
in his first press conference as a Barça manager
But while the excitement was high because we were still at the top of the table, it quickly faded away in the following weeks, reaching a boiling point during the resuming of football in these summer months. After the Granada encounter, the team showed the same issues away from home, where Setién saved himself from an embarrassing defeat at Ibiza in the Copa del Rey and, a few days later, still crumbled at Valencia.
Differently from Valverde, Quique’s side has never scored as much, reaching the four and five goals mark only one time each. The performances never took off and, since the goals scored decreased, the boringness of the games increased. No matter the tactical system he chose, the results were just a spark in the unknown.
The El Clásico at the Santiago Bernabéu was a reflection that not only something was wrong, but something was changing. It was the first time since the 2012/13 season that Barcelona weren’t able to win a league game against Real Madrid in a single term. Times are different, times are changing. Either way, fans still kept their heads afloat, when coronavirus shocked the world and blocked everything. Everyone was confined in their homes with a +1 from Barça in the La Liga table over Los Blancos, who had lost to Real Betis.
Neither with results nor with the style implemented, Quique Setién has not been able to have the expected impact at Barcelona | Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images
No matter the chaos, culés were still one point ahead. But it didn’t matter. Because everyone could see how that wasn’t enough. Everyone knew how the calendar was looking for the remaining games and how the team had performed earlier. Barça should have been flawless once football resumed. But after such an inconsistent season, how could one think they would have?
Even though the first match back was a comfortable win at Mallorca, the inconsistency came back to haunt Barça and Setién couldn’t respond to it. He even seemed to have found a tactical solution to the MSG against Villarreal, but it proved just a random and tiny in-game success, rather than a sustainable one.
“I am happy with a lot of things that have improved since I arrived here”
after the loss against Osasuna
The warm weather, the fatigue and the lactic acid also did their thing, along with the board’s inexplicable transfer decisions, rumours and scandals. Since the Matchday series became live, Barça seemed like a reality show. Sporting director Éric Abidal’s comments and Bartomeu’s I3 Ventures scandal brought down to the team more and more gasoline to an already well-lighten fire.
Even more worrying technically wise was the noise surrounding Quique Setién that became louder ever since the cameras spotted Eder Sarabia, his assistant, shouting and expressing his thoughts in an unusually explicit way. Setién’s body language and words in the post-lockdown period did the rest in terms of accountability and self-confidence that a manager should inspire to his team. He showed every bit of his inexperience, starting with his clueless substitutions and lack of ones, and finishing with his behaviours.
“Since January, everything that’s been happening at the club has been weird and bad”
after the loss against Osasuna
It didn’t depict a solid environment – not that it ever was this season – surrounding a team which lacked the mental freshness to clinch another La Liga title. Barcelona haven’t lost the league because of Valverde or Setién. Barcelona haven’t lost it by drawing three games post-lockdown. Barcelona lost it because they lost points during the entire campaign. They lost points against the likes of Celta de Vigo, Osasuna, Sevilla and…that could be it. If Barça had just got all the three points from these opponents, they would have been champions. But the game is not played with the what ifs.
Barça lost it because they don’t have the volume of players other teams have. Barça lost it because they are still depending on a single individual’s magic rather than on the collective’s creativity. Barça lost it because the board decided that the best interest for the club was that of giving out on loan players as Rafinha, Aleñá and Carles Pérez, who were all fundamental in this team. Barça lost it because they lacked Barça in their veins.
The only thing we achieved this year is the welcome to the big stage to Ansu Fati and Riqui Puig, the club’s future. With Josep Maria Bartomeu’s permission. As captain Messi said, the Osasuna game is a reflection of Barça’s season. Barcelona won’t achieve anything as a team by playing as they have done all year long. They won’t achieve anything as a club behaving and managing as they have done in the last few years.
“We were inconsistent during the season. Real Madrid did their thing. We lost a lot of points. We have to do some self-criticism. We are Barça”
after the loss against Osasuna
The goal is a long-term project, rather than a short-term fix. While fans all can’t wait for the 2021 presidential elections, they have to be set on the present. Because the present consists of another title to play for. As Neymar once said, “1% chance, 99% faith”. But while the unknowns at Barcelona stay a fair number, the moments needed to achieve a spark are timeless.
But regarding the league, there’s nothing else to say other than to congratulate Real Madrid. They deserved it. But hey, the blaugranas surely didn’t help their case as much as they helped Madrid in achieving theirs. Dear Barça, you have been truly disappointing.
Using Machine Learning to predict Barcelona’s 2021/22 league season
Johan Cruyff famously said, “I’ve never seen a bag of money score a goal.” It is indisputable that money is not the only deciding factor behind a football club’s success. Time and time again, we have seen that football is chaotic and absurd. Anything can happen.
That being said, it is evident that statistically, the clubs with more money are usually the more successful ones. While one cannot predict the unpredictability that is engraved within football, an outcome that is statistically probable can be predicted. This article will explore the relationship between the points a club accumulates in a league season and the total value of the club’s squad. Then, Python will be used to build a linear regression model in order to predict the number of points Barcelona will obtain in the 21/22 season based on the club’s hypothetical squad.
Let us begin with visualizing the relationship between the total league points obtained by a club and the club’s total squad value. Since the amount of money spent on transfers has increased tremendously over the course of the last decade, in this article, only seasons 2014/15 – 2019/20 will be considered. Upon plotting the total points against the total squad value, it is evident that there is a positive correlation between the two. Granted, the correlation is not extremely strong, but it exists nonetheless.
A line of regression has been generated. The line’s gradient is approximately 0.05138986, and its y-intercept is approximately 44.5470726. There is only one dependant variable in question, club value/total value of squad, and so our line of regression can be modelled by the equation:
P = (0.05138986 )V + 44.5470726 where P is the points and V is the total squad value.
club_values = np.array(df['Values']).reshape(89,1) club_points = np.array(df['Point']).reshape(89,1) from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression linear_model = LinearRegression() linear_model.fit(club_values,club_points)
In order to predict the points accumulated based on Barcelona’s squad value next season, the squad value won’t directly be inputted into our equation above. The coefficient and the y-intercept have been rounded up after a certain number of decimal places, and so, to preserve the precision of the prediction, Python’s LinearRegression predict method will be utilized.
Now comes another challenging part of coming up with Barcelona’s hypothetical squad next season. Based on reports, it can be assumed that Samuel Umtiti, Miralem Pjanic, Martin Braithwaite and Phillipe Coutinho will be some of the notable players to leave. To compensate for the outgoing players, it can be assumed that Barcelona will sign Eric Garcia, David Alaba, Georginio Wijnaldum and Memphis Depay. Here is a table that contains all the players in Barcelona’s hypothetical 21/22 squad and their corresponding market values:
|PLAYER NAME||MARKET VALUE (MILLION POUNDS)|
|MARC ANDRE TER STEGEN||79.34|
|FRENKIE DE JONG||84.63|
|KONRAD DE LA FUENTE||2.64|
The club’s total value comes up to be £786.60 million. It is important to note that a player’s value is volatile. Transfermarkt updates player values every few months, and so it is extremely probable that this squad’s market value will be drastically different next season.
It is also important to understand that Transfermarkt’s market values are not official and so they are not always an accurate representation of a player’s true market value. Moreover, a player’s value is not always an accurate representation of their quality. Age is a key factor in determining market value, and so while a young player might have a high market value indicating that they are a bright prospect for the future, they might not necessarily be an excellent player at the time when the value is assigned.
Now that all of this has been established, the only thing left is making the prediction.
The machine learning model predicts that Barcelona will obtain 85 points in the 21/22 La Liga season. In the 19/20 season, Real Madrid won the league with 87 points, and in the 18/19 season, Barcelona won the league with 87 points as well. The difference between the points accumulated by the last two winning La Liga squads and the predicted points that Barcelona’s 21/22 squad will obtain is a mere 2 points. This shows that it is possible for Barcelona to win the league next season.
Since the correlation between the two variables, as observed from the data from the last 6 seasons, is not even close to being extremely strong, Barcelona’s 21/22 league points tally may be drastically different from what was predicted by the machine learning model. However, at the end of the day, the model can only work with the data it is exposed to.
Erling Haaland can change the course of Barcelona’s season. It would take forever to make predictions based on Barcelona’s hypothetical squads that include all of the club’s potential transfer targets, however, due to Haaland’s influence, an exception can be made for him. Laporta’s interest in signing Haaland has been widely reported.
However, he will cost a fortune this summer, and with Barcelona’s debt situation, it is unlikely that the Catalan club will pursue him in the upcoming transfer window. That being said like mentioned previously in the article, football is chaotic, and anything can happen.
Assuming that Barcelona does end up signing Haaland in the summer, Antoine Griezmann will most definitely have to leave (due to wages and the money that can be generated from his sale). Haaland’s current value is £99 million, and so Barcelona’s total squad value for next season, after being corrected for Griezmann’s exit and Haaland’s arrival is £831.60 million.
Haaland’s addition can put 21/22 Barcelona on level with the previous two Spanish champions in terms of total points won. The difference in points between a squad containing Haaland and one not containing him is only two. However, an argument about whether signing Haaland is worth it, is not in the scope of this article.
“Transition seasons do not exist at Barcelona.”Joan Laporta | Presidential campaign
A club of Barcelona’s stature will always compete for titles. The machine learning model shows that Barcelona is in contention for the 2021/22 La Liga title. Ronald Koeman has done a splendid job at the Blaugrana club this season, and there is no logical reason for him to not do an even better job next season after getting fresh players in the summer.
While football at its core is unpredictable, statistically, it would not hurt to trust Barcelona to win the 2021/22 La Liga title.